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Is normal variance hurting your 100 nl poker game?

Gambler Faces Tough Questions | Bad Beats or Misplays at 100NL?

By

Ryan Patel

Feb 6, 2026, 10:45 PM

Edited By

Thomas Ng

2 minutes reading time

A player looking concerned at a poker table with scattered losing chips and cards.

Recently, a player shared their struggles at 100NL. With a $1,000 loss in a month, theyโ€™re left questioning their skills and whether variance is at play. A mix of all-in hands, including pocket Aces and various bad beats, has sparked an outpouring of advice from fellow players on multiple forums.

Context and Consequences

The player detailed losing several significant hands that included pocket Aces to pocket Kings, a full house loss, and more. "Am I a bad player, or is this just normal variance?" they asked, seeking constructive criticism. As the player weighs their options, including a break to study and potentially upgrade their GTO subscription, the community response varies between empathy and tough love.

Key Discussion Points

  1. Variance: Many players assert the losses are part of poker's inherent ups and downs. One former winner summed it up: "Losing 10 buy-ins sucks, but itโ€™s very normal."

  2. Strategy Assessment: Some comments highlight the need for better hand histories and detailed play analysis. Reflecting on a specific hand, a user advised, "You seem confused about loose players those types of players are the best to play against."

  3. Tactical Focus: Comments emphasize shifting focus to smaller hands rather than only the major losses. As one commenter noted, "Itโ€™s always the mundane common hands that you lose the most on."

Community Reactions

The responses ranged from supportive to critical, indicating mixed sentiment. Statements such as "Youโ€™re missing positions in half these hands" show that some feel the player is not yet ready for 100NL.

"You should move down to a lower stake while you work on your game," said another community member, underlining the importance of confidence in the game.

Key Takeaways

  • โ–ณ A player reported a $1,000 loss over a month, questioning their skills.

  • โ–ฝ Reactions reveal a blend of empathy and constructive criticism.

  • โ€ป "Youโ€™re focusing on the wrong hands" โ€“ Reflective comment from a fellow player.

This ongoing discussion illustrates the struggles many fall into when facing downswings. While some offer solace, others stress the need for strategic improvement and disciplined play. Will this player find the answer they seek, or will they continue to grapple with their recent poker fate?

The Road Ahead for the Struggling Player

As the player considers their next steps, there's a strong chance they'll either take a break or invest time in reassessing their strategy. Many experts estimate around a 60% likelihood that they will prioritize studying their game to identify leaks. If they opt for a break, they might return refreshed; if they dive into detailed analysis, they could emerge with a clearer understanding of their playstyle. Ultimately, the combination of these approaches may better prepare them for the ups and downs of 100NL.

From Climb to Clarity: A Lesson in the World of Climbing

This situation mirrors the journey of climbers facing tough routes. Many climbers encounter daunting walls that lead to falls and frustration before mastering the necessary skills and techniques to conquer them. Just as climbers reevaluate their strategies after setbacksโ€”often changing their approach to tackle both common pitfalls and big challengesโ€”the poker player could find that refining their tactics and seeking feedback might lead to gradual improvement. Similar to climbing, poker requires resilience and an understanding that setbacks are integral to growth.